Colombias June 21 Runoff: Polls Show De la Espriella Ahead, Expats Should Prepare for a Charged Election Day
Colombia’s presidential runoff is scheduled for Sunday, June 21, 2026, with the winner set to take office on August 7. The final legal polls released before the vote all point to conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leading left‑wing senator Iván Cepeda.
The two most recent surveys that were allowed to be published before the election were conducted by Guarumo/Ecoanalítica for El Tiempo and AtlasIntel for Semana. Both placed de la Espriella in the low‑fifties and Cepeda in the mid‑forties. The El Tiempo poll reported 52.6 % for de la Espriella versus 45.0 % for Cepeda, a lead of 7.6 percentage points. The Semana poll gave 52.2 % to 44.5 %, a 7.7‑point advantage. A third poll from Centro Nacional de Consultoría showed a narrower margin: 48.6 % for de la Espriella against 44.7 % for Cepeda, a 3.9‑point lead.
De la Espriella, a lawyer with a high‑profile career and a combative, law‑and‑order platform, has received endorsements from former president Álvaro Uribe and U.S. President Donald Trump. Cepeda, a veteran senator and ally of outgoing president Gustavo Petro, runs on a platform of continuity for the current administration’s agenda.
The trend over recent weeks has been a widening lead for de la Espriella as Cepeda’s numbers have stalled. In a country where runoffs typically produce a clear result on election night, official figures are expected within hours of polls closing. A decisive margin would settle the contest quickly.
Cepeda has said he will recognize the result but would call for peaceful protest if he believes rights are violated. That stance is worth keeping in mind for the days immediately after the vote.
Foreign residents do not vote in Colombia’s presidential elections. For most expats the practical impact is about the day itself rather than the ballot. Expect a charged, heavily policed Sunday, and the possibility of marches in Bogotá, Medellín and other cities once results are in.
Plan errands and travel around June 21, keep an eye on local news that evening, and avoid large gatherings if you would rather steer clear. The same Sunday is also the deadline for Mexico City’s short‑term‑rental registry, so if you host there, be aware of that requirement.
Whoever wins, the result will reset Colombia’s direction for four years, with implications for taxes, security policy and the investment climate that expats and remote workers feel over time. Markets have already reacted to the shifting odds, with the peso and Ecopetrol moving in response to the polls.
In short, treat June 21 as a significant civic day. Give yourself room, stay informed, and wait for official numbers rather than early projections. The outcome will shape Colombia’s trajectory for the 2026‑2030 term, replacing Gustavo Petro.
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